Bad Science on Climate Denial
by Seth Fisher
January 19, 2010
If the winners of the climate debate want to get anything done, they can start by not saying "I told you so."
Ben Goldacre writes a column called "Bad Science"
for the British paper, The Guardian. He serves as a sort of
volunteer ombudsman for all science coverage in mass media, with a focus on
British media. In December, climate change skepticism came
in for the Goldacre treatment:
We're inherently predisposed to find
cracks in evidence that suggests we should do something we don't want to do,
hence the enduring appeal of stories about alcohol being good for
you.
Goldacre was talking only about how mainstream
media likes to feed skeptics (and in my experience, tends to pick some of the
worst arguments too). But he hit upon the biggest thing that the climate change
deniers have going for them: the activists are asking the impossible, and when
they admit it, they sound like radicals.
What are we fighting about now?
The substantive debate over the science of this is pretty
much over. One side has The
Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change 2007 contributed to by
thousands of scientists. The other side has www.climatechangefacts.info.
The first is the product of an unprecedented collaboration within the global
scientific community. The second is being gleefully passed out to collegiate
Philosophy students as a lesson in fallacy finding. Regardless of who's right,
in the battle for credibility, the skeptics are totally outgunned.
What the skeptics have going for them are three things: 1)
It is pretty hard to explain the whole thing; 2) How (as
opposed to if) the climate will change is still, for the
most part, a complete unknown; and 3) The other guys are being jerks about it.
We are moving fast-forward toward controls, but
still the argument is being framed as "you're too simple to understand,"
versus "you're being hoodwinked and every lab-coat and liberal is in on
it." If you hold to these positions, that's your prerogative, but
understand that there is no way either of those stances will ever, ever
be accepted as consensus opinions.
Politicizing the issue
In the U.S., the epicenter of the world's response to
climate change, Democrats have seized on the issue, removing all room for subtlety
and reframing the debate as a black-and-white battle of life and death (vote
[for us] or die). Republicans, mindful of the political ramifications of going
against the majority, have taken to stalling or sniping, while trying to send a
few furtive winks toward the targeted businesses who feel like the Industrial
Age just became their problem.
World: Yes, the entire Industrial
Age. Your fault. Fix it now, and try not to raise any of our energy prices
while you're at it.
Industry: Huh?
Such a position works well on a political
platform, but falls far short of the truth, and even further from engendering
the kind of national support that such a vast undertaking requires. Targeting
industries and making it their problem is not going to create solutions. It
only makes people upset, and less likely to believe in what we're trying to
accomplish, and to see a guy running around in circles yelling
"panic" instead of potential for real solutions.
Nobody wants to hear the sky is falling, especially when the sky is falling
Every once in awhile, we get to see a guy running around
with his hands in the air, yelling "panic." We dismiss this guy,
because really, if you ever see a guy running around with his hands in the air
yelling "panic," and it turns out he is right, you seldom survive to
tell the tale. It's evolution: we are all, almost by definition, descended from
the people who happened to be nowhere near anyone yelling "panic" who
wasn't crazy.
So forgive us if we don't believe it this time.
And the thing is, with climate change, when you look at the
whole story, it doesn’t say "we can reverse it," or "we just
need to get ourselves under control," or even "it's all the fault of
the people who drive Hummers." It invariably concludes "hit the panic
button, because we are up a certain creek."
One of the skeptics' best arguments getting ignored by the
"we're done debating this" crowd is that there's a 30-year delay
between CO2 output, and its effect. This is because any
time there is a shift in temperature, our massive oceans claim first dibs on
the effects. Likewise, they are the first to suck up excess
CO2 in the atmosphere. This means the effects right now
are from around 1980. That SUV your neighbor bought in 1995: still 15 years
away.
You can see, then, why those who want to control
GHGs would rather just get to work rather than sit around explaining the
nuances, or focusing too hard on the unknown timetable and even more unknown
tipping points. Of course, who among the reasonable and reasonably intelligent
likes to launch huge undertakings without getting all the facts straight? Raise
of hands?
Everyone should stop acting so sure
They've been framing the debate like there's an 80 percent
chance that we can reverse the problem and return to normal, and 20 percent
chance that we're wrong. From my understanding of the science behind this,
there's a 10 percent chance that we can reverse it, a 5 percent chance that
doing nothing will be okay, and an 85-percent chance that something totally
unpredictable is going to happen.
The good news from scientists is that this kind of thing
works slowly. And the other good news is that humans and our ancestors have
made it out of much worse. All the GHG cuts in the world are not going to stop
the climate from changing some. There's a chance it could change for the
better, so long as we define "better" as more land becoming suitable
for comfortable human habitation. That's a very unlikely chance, though. What's
far more likely is that the world's nations will find ways to overcome food and
water shortages, and better prepare coastal cities for transitional storms and
flooding. In fact, it may be easier to do that than control our GHG emissions.
The point of all of this is that resistance is
pretty much futile, and so is trying to convince everybody that we're sure when
we're not. We are going to try to cut back on our GHG emissions, and then hope
for the best. We're going to put most of the burden on fossil fuel-using
industry, and expect the geniuses who made the United States the world's
industrial giant to work their magic once again. It would go a lot smoother if
we could try not to gouge each others' eyes out in the process.
|
By: Not a Lone Voice
Posted: January 20, 2010 9:39 AM
By: Mark Schaffer
Posted: January 22, 2010 2:30 AM
For any readers not enamored by the propaganda of "Not a Lone Voice" you can find a good explanation of the multiple inputs to global warming in the past. Start with Milankovitch cycles, work through CO2 outgassing, then into the physics of the heat trapping properties of CO2 leading to FURTHER warming as part of a positive feedback loop.
I don't know about the assertions of the actions Spain and Germany are taking regarding subsidies but take the statements by the entity with a grain of salt until evidence is presented (or not). The rest of this entities post is a series of vague overblown rhetorical nonsense as well, right down to the unsupported assertions about "thousands of scientists and meteorologists that differ based upon their studies". This would probably lead back to the debunked nonsense from OISM, run by a couple of cranks in the woods of Oregon.
Show sources moron!
By: Tadd Bartley
Posted: January 22, 2010 12:56 PM
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100121170717.htm
By: Not a Lone Voice
Posted: January 25, 2010 12:30 PM