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Bad Science on Climate Denial
by Seth Fisher
January 19, 2010

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If the winners of the climate debate want to get anything done, they can start by not saying "I told you so."


Ben Goldacre writes a column called "Bad Science" for the British paper, The Guardian. He serves as a sort of volunteer ombudsman for all science coverage in mass media, with a focus on British media. In December, climate change skepticism came in for the Goldacre treatment:
We're inherently predisposed to find cracks in evidence that suggests we should do something we don't want to do, hence the enduring appeal of stories about alcohol being good for you.
Goldacre was talking only about how mainstream media likes to feed skeptics (and in my experience, tends to pick some of the worst arguments too). But he hit upon the biggest thing that the climate change deniers have going for them: the activists are asking the impossible, and when they admit it, they sound like radicals.


What are we fighting about now?

The substantive debate over the science of this is pretty much over. One side has The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change 2007 contributed to by thousands of scientists. The other side has www.climatechangefacts.info. The first is the product of an unprecedented collaboration within the global scientific community. The second is being gleefully passed out to collegiate Philosophy students as a lesson in fallacy finding. Regardless of who's right, in the battle for credibility, the skeptics are totally outgunned.

What the skeptics have going for them are three things: 1) It is pretty hard to explain the whole thing; 2) How (as opposed to if) the climate will change is still, for the most part, a complete unknown; and 3) The other guys are being jerks about it.

We are moving fast-forward toward controls, but still the argument is being framed as "you're too simple to understand," versus "you're being hoodwinked and every lab-coat and liberal is in on it." If you hold to these positions, that's your prerogative, but understand that there is no way either of those stances will ever, ever be accepted as consensus opinions.


Politicizing the issue

In the U.S., the epicenter of the world's response to climate change, Democrats have seized on the issue, removing all room for subtlety and reframing the debate as a black-and-white battle of life and death (vote [for us] or die). Republicans, mindful of the political ramifications of going against the majority, have taken to stalling or sniping, while trying to send a few furtive winks toward the targeted businesses who feel like the Industrial Age just became their problem.

World: Yes, the entire Industrial Age. Your fault. Fix it now, and try not to raise any of our energy prices while you're at it.

Industry: Huh?


Such a position works well on a political platform, but falls far short of the truth, and even further from engendering the kind of national support that such a vast undertaking requires. Targeting industries and making it their problem is not going to create solutions. It only makes people upset, and less likely to believe in what we're trying to accomplish, and to see a guy running around in circles yelling "panic" instead of potential for real solutions.


Nobody wants to hear the sky is falling, especially when the sky is falling

Every once in awhile, we get to see a guy running around with his hands in the air, yelling "panic." We dismiss this guy, because really, if you ever see a guy running around with his hands in the air yelling "panic," and it turns out he is right, you seldom survive to tell the tale. It's evolution: we are all, almost by definition, descended from the people who happened to be nowhere near anyone yelling "panic" who wasn't crazy.

So forgive us if we don't believe it this time.

And the thing is, with climate change, when you look at the whole story, it doesn’t say "we can reverse it," or "we just need to get ourselves under control," or even "it's all the fault of the people who drive Hummers." It invariably concludes "hit the panic button, because we are up a certain creek."

One of the skeptics' best arguments getting ignored by the "we're done debating this" crowd is that there's a 30-year delay between CO2 output, and its effect. This is because any time there is a shift in temperature, our massive oceans claim first dibs on the effects. Likewise, they are the first to suck up excess CO2 in the atmosphere. This means the effects right now are from around 1980. That SUV your neighbor bought in 1995: still 15 years away.

You can see, then, why those who want to control GHGs would rather just get to work rather than sit around explaining the nuances, or focusing too hard on the unknown timetable and even more unknown tipping points. Of course, who among the reasonable and reasonably intelligent likes to launch huge undertakings without getting all the facts straight? Raise of hands?


Everyone should stop acting so sure

They've been framing the debate like there's an 80 percent chance that we can reverse the problem and return to normal, and 20 percent chance that we're wrong. From my understanding of the science behind this, there's a 10 percent chance that we can reverse it, a 5 percent chance that doing nothing will be okay, and an 85-percent chance that something totally unpredictable is going to happen.

The good news from scientists is that this kind of thing works slowly. And the other good news is that humans and our ancestors have made it out of much worse. All the GHG cuts in the world are not going to stop the climate from changing some. There's a chance it could change for the better, so long as we define "better" as more land becoming suitable for comfortable human habitation. That's a very unlikely chance, though. What's far more likely is that the world's nations will find ways to overcome food and water shortages, and better prepare coastal cities for transitional storms and flooding. In fact, it may be easier to do that than control our GHG emissions.

The point of all of this is that resistance is pretty much futile, and so is trying to convince everybody that we're sure when we're not. We are going to try to cut back on our GHG emissions, and then hope for the best. We're going to put most of the burden on fossil fuel-using industry, and expect the geniuses who made the United States the world's industrial giant to work their magic once again. It would go a lot smoother if we could try not to gouge each others' eyes out in the process.


Seth Fisher
seth@pollutionengineering.com
Seth is the publisher of Pollution Engineering. Since joining in 2003, he has served as PE’s products editor, associate editor, news editor, e-newsletter editor, website director, and associate publisher, before assuming the reigns of the magazine in April, 2010.

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  Comments (4)Post a Comment
Title: A note from a dissenter


The al gore crowd continuously proclaims, as you do, that the debate over the science is over. How narrow minded of your side. Sounds like the schoolyard kid who doesn’t like the teams that were picked so he’s going to take his ball and go home. The science they use to make their point is hand picked from all of the evidence available. Gore pompously announced in his infamous fantasy film that whenever CO2 has risen in history, the temperatures have followed and he dramatically illustrates the point with a spectacular graph displayed on a huge screen. Hit the pause button and zoom in on that chart. You will notice that the CO2 curve LAGS the temperature curve. Besides uncovering the e-mails with their incriminating content (which the officials have not said were not real) look at the actions of other nations and experts. Spain has removed subsidies for wind energy and the industry has nearly ground to a halt there as a result. Germany just announced they would cut subsidies for solar power because it is just not cost effective. The IPCC has admitted to India that some glacial studies need to be redone because of error although they also announce a new study would not change their minds. Some power plants in Europe have switched back to coal. Recent studies show that magma is actively moving under Antarctica in places such as Erebus and perhaps others. Military sensors that can be accessed on the Internet are recording ice growth but the media only reports when an iceberg is formed after breaking off a glacier. A process that has continued for millions of years. A satellite that was supposed to provide better evidence on the topic was destroyed in a rare rocket failure not long ago. However, Congress refuses to fund a project to rebuild the craft. No sir, the debate is far from over. It is more a question of having the free opportunity to openly hear both sides of an argument rather than listed to rhetoric of those that would trample free speech and declare that dissenters can only rely upon a single source for information while thousands of scientists support the GW theory. That ignores the tens of thousands of scientists and meteorologists that differ based upon their STUDIES.


Title: Not a lone voice is wrong on the facts


Can the anonymous voice above please post evidence that supports the assertion that the science is handpicked? Would this include what Svante Arrhenius found out at the end of the nineteenth century? Or the thousands of research papers since?
For any readers not enamored by the propaganda of "Not a Lone Voice" you can find a good explanation of the multiple inputs to global warming in the past. Start with Milankovitch cycles, work through CO2 outgassing, then into the physics of the heat trapping properties of CO2 leading to FURTHER warming as part of a positive feedback loop.
I don't know about the assertions of the actions Spain and Germany are taking regarding subsidies but take the statements by the entity with a grain of salt until evidence is presented (or not). The rest of this entities post is a series of vague overblown rhetorical nonsense as well, right down to the unsupported assertions about "thousands of scientists and meteorologists that differ based upon their studies". This would probably lead back to the debunked nonsense from OISM, run by a couple of cranks in the woods of Oregon.
Show sources moron!


Title: Warmest Decade on Record


Here's something to throw into the mix:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100121170717.htm


Title: Response to Mark


You have precisely made my point, Mark, with your arguments. You picked a few comments to support your disagreement with me and failed to do the most rudimentary research on your own. I really don’t have time nor is there space here to make a comprehensive argument by providing a complete set of sources. However, here are a few that were easily found using Google as a search engine. I am using these as only examples and you should do your own research rather than take my word or those of the IPCC. NASA released a report that mentions that the data exists showing data supporting ice growth is real but then says the data is misleading. Further in the scientific report, the author admits that there is little melting or warming activity on the East side of Antarctica and then adds the word YET. I would not thing that an person with a scientific background would have added such a word in a serious report. The report delves further to discredit those that argue GW is a conclusion drawn with too little comprehensive data and discusses the West side of Antarctica. Studies have shown the Ocean temperatures on that side have slightly increased and as a result, the ice shelves are melting from the bottom, which adds stress to the ice and they are breaking up. Some of the breakups have been rather spectacular. Once these ice shelves have broken free, the glaciers behind them have indeed measured and increased movement toward the Ocean. While he does not say for certain, he hints that GW must be the cause. Nowhere does the author even suggest there might be another cause. Go to www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html to read the NASA report. There are references for additional resources at the end of the report. The Science Daily is a news outlet for nearly any scientific activity. They keep the reporting non-commercial and will report either side of a discussion. That is the point, it allows discussion by the scientific community. A report in March 2008 discusses the volcanic activity that is believed to be taking place beneath the ice in Antarctica and how it could result in just the phenomena now observed. Only a few studies are taking place for the tectonic activity under the ice but the evidence that it exists is clearly there. To go www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080229183818.htm to review the article. Finally, I noticed you decided to discredit the OISM as an organization “run by a couple of cranks in the woods of Oregon.” First, the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine is a pretty well known organization with a decent history. Let’s look at the cranks to see who they are. Professor Martin D. Kamen discovered Carbon 14 and many of the techniques used in medicine today for radioactive tracers in biochemistry and molecular biology. He has been presented with a number Professor Arthur B. Robinson co-founded the institute in 1981. Before that, he cofounded the well known Linus-Pauling Institute of Science and Medicine in 1973. While he has many accomplishments in the medical research field, he is perhaps best known for his work in developing home-schooling curriculums and work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. There are a number of distinguished people that work at the institute and I doubt very much they would risk the private funding of their organization to fake the currently signed 31,486 American scientists, 9,029 that hold PhD degrees. All of the signers are listed on the petition’s website so any person can easily see who has taken the stand.


 

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