Expect GHG Control to Get Messy
by Seth Fisher
August 6, 2009
When my grandparents passed away, we had a pretty messy time
deciding who gets what. These kinds of things never go well.
We had several ideas of how to do this fairly. One was to have
an "auction" using each family member's liquid inheritance, with the
proceeds being redistributed evenly. Another was to assign an arbiter of
unlimited power to dole things out and call it a day. Of course, our democratic
family doesn't work that way – we like to argue, and vote, then argue about the
vote.
We went with a mix, with my mother and her sisters serving
as auditors, we came to each item, someone was nominated to receive it, and if
more than one person was nominated, the receivers got to make brief comments
like "he already got the rifle," or "I'm a musician," and
then we took a hand vote. Afterward, people could trade things with each other,
so grabbing things of greater monetary value (or alcohol content if a certain
uncle had what you wanted) could barter you toward the object you truly
desired.
In the end, every grandkid got something meant to be special
to that person: the musical cousin got an antique violin, the Harley-owning
brother got the WWII memorabilia, the hunter cousin got Grandpa's old M1, the
geek got the chess set, etc.
I got lots of books. Publishes a magazine =
books.
A book of quotes
Some were instant treasures ( Shakespeare's Collected Works
– oh yeah!). But most ended up on a shelf at my parents to be saved the
rigors of a 20-something's vagabond lifestyle.
Last week I rediscovered this dusty shelf, and stumbled on a
surprising little book. A little red book. Yes,
that little
red book. According to my mother it wasn't just there as a
collector's item; before the war, Grandpa "dabbled" in Communism.
Communism when it's explained by its leaders (and when they
can stay away from repeating "the common weal" for more than a page)
seems to make some sense. It's very clean: the idea is to apply basic organizational
principles to everything. Need 10 guys over here – put them there. Need $10
million over here? Put it there. From on high, everything makes sense. It's on
the ground that this system becomes a cartload of 'common weal' – without
built-in motivating factors, progression comes to a standstill.
Capitalism, by contrast, is messy. For some
people to be rich, others have to be destitute. And the things we value as a
society may not coincide with those that the market values at any given time.
Anecdotally, you could fill shelf after shelf with the uglier side of our
system. The thing to remember, then, is that anecdotes don't tell the whole
story.
Who gets the credit?
History can take this wide-angle view, but current events
seldom give us such a comprehensive vision. Rather, we focus on individual
tales: the man on the street versus the man in the tower. In the microcosm, our
trust in free markets can seem counterintuitive.
This week the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released
a report speculating on how the government might put together a new
cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gas (GHG) control. The report highlights
different methods for doling out emission allowances, noting that the success
or catastrophic failure of the whole program will come down to how well this
key aspect is executed.
No ifs, ands or buts: when launching a new commodity, there's
one shot to get it right. Essentially, you're centrally
planning a free market, a collision of communism
and capitalism. Dicey? I should think so.
The options discussed for allocation are reminiscent of
those discussed for Inheritance Sunday. One is to auction off every credit,
using the revenues to compensate households (presumably this means a tax break
for the total amount raised). Companies would be responsible for knowing how
much they need, would be incentivized to walk into the auction with the most
accurate information.
Another is to hand 'em out, which the regulated community
prefers for obvious reasons. This is a more Communist (actually:
Socialist) answer, though, requiring a lot of initial
oversight by the federal government to determine who gets what. Imagine the
opportunities for corruption, if, say, one company with some political
influence got a bunch of credits they didn't deserve, or if one that was
politically unpopular for unrelated reasons got the shaft. Imagine the
bureaucracy needed to get accurate, honest, one-time estimates of each plant's
CO 2 output!
The third option discussed by the GAO report is
to mix it up, giving away some allowances, and then auctioning off the rest.
Assessing the options
In the microcosm, Options B and C seem to make sense, right?
This makes government the ultimate arbiter, and the one ultimately responsible
for knowing what each plant's credits should be.
By contrast, on the surface, intuitively, Option A looks
scary. For one, putting the auction money in the government's hands and
expecting it to be "redistributed" sets off our 'red' flags – I mean,
c'mon, when's the last time we handed over a $100 dollar bill to the government
and had it come back with Ben Franklin still on the face (in other words, how's
that Social Security thing going)?
The auction idea also puts industry in the position of
paying a massive up-front cost, which it obviously has to pass on to consumers.
A one-time hit like this, even if offset by a tax break later, is a nasty,
clutch-less shift for the economic engine to absorb.
And it puts a lot of pressure on the energy industry in
particular to get accurate estimates going in. Considering we're in
undiscovered territory here, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and suggest that -
erk – not a few companies will get it very wrong, and go out
of business.
This is messy.
So is Capitalism.
A capital idea
One thing about the big red idea: it's clean and neat. When
it's time for everybody to, say, control something they've never thought about
controlling before, everyone moves at once, fairly, with the referee directing
the way. Of course, in application, this fails – regularly and spectacularly
fails. The corollary: Capitalist responses are sloppy – only in the macro, i.e.
with the hindsight of history, is its superiority ultimately made clear.
By now, I think you know where I'm going with this. Option A
– the auction – is the answer. Oh, it's going to hurt, but there's some things
we can do about that.
1. I'm not up enough on finance to go into specifics here,
but my feeling is a portion of the credit should be made directly into the
startup capital for EPA's enforcement mechanism of its GHG program, and the
rest put into an egalitarian (i.e. every taxpayer gets $100) Income Tax refund.
2. We're going to put a few companies out of business. This
is what I mean by our system being a bit messy: this is a necessary part of the
transition. In particular trouble are coal-fired power plants, and companies
that haven't upgraded in a while. To this, there really isn't a cure-all answer
– the best we can do as a nation is let these businesses have enough lead-time
that they have a fighting chance to develop the technology and get it online
before the program goes into effect.
Nobody promised things would be perfect. Okay, some people
are promising things will be perfect, but they're fooling themselves. Transitioning
the United States to a cap-and-trade system for GHG control is going to get
ugly one way or another. The question is what we look like when we've come out
the other side: do we take the bitter pill up front, or have it dosed by the
government?
If it's one or the other, I say we just do the auction, get
it over with, see who we lose, and trust in our own ingenuity to bring us
through in the end. It's worked before.
And besides, you know what you get when your
ultimate fate is put in another's hands? You get a little red book full of
quotes in support of what is ultimately a stupid idea.
|